FlightPlan2050
Central Lakes’ airports – investigate the bigger picture.
Our Purpose
FlightPlan2050 Incorporated advocates for the Central Lakes’ future airport infrastructure to ensure it best promotes the whole region’s future environmental, social, cultural, and economic wellbeing.
We recognise that airport infrastructure has profound systemic impacts on the region’s economic development (including its dependence on tourism and ability to diversify), housing affordability, urban development, transport network, and environment. And that suburban sprawl and long-haul flights’ radiative forcing adversely affect climate change.
We are concerned that current airport planning is fragmented between competing companies, councils, communities, and stakeholders. With no one applying a holistic regional approach, there is a real danger a significantly suboptimal outcome could prevail.
We ask you to join us in our call for a national-level assessment to determine the best airport infrastructure for the Central Lakes region and New Zealand.
Add your voice
We can’t do this alone. We need the support of as many people in the community as possible, plus those who visit, and those living elsewhere who care about the future of our area.
With everyone’s support, we will have a stronger voice.
We’re asking you to join FlightPlan2050 Incorporated. It’s easy and it’s free.
Forces of change
Two underlying drivers are forcing change in the Central Lakes region – whether we like it or not.
Rapid growth
Ballooning residential population
The region’s residential population has relentless rapid growth. Our Councils project it nearly doubling by 2050, likely doubling again after that. Central Lakes is beautiful, drawing many more people just as it attracted those already living here.
We have no control over who can move here but can plan where they might live. Will we continue suburban sprawl or centralise urban density?
Climate change
Future and livelihoods at risk
Whether we care about climate change or not, it presents a profound and growing threat to the region’s economy, with the Reserve Bank identifying tourism as New Zealand’s most at-risk sector for climate change and earthquakes.
Can we reduce emissions and protect our future while improving our economic livelihoods? We think yes, we can. Alternatively, we could make our situations worse, depending on which strategy we pursue.
Long-term provision of aviation infrastructure in Aotearoa New Zealand should be a wider conversation, led by Central Government and taking into account all views of affected communities. It should not be led by a single district or airport company.
QAC Draft Master Plan – schedule of changes, Sept 2023
Rare opportunity
We have a rare opportunity to shape Central Lakes’ future airport infrastructure, the outcome of which will have a profound impact on the region. The proposed Central Otago airport presents an opportunity to consider what the best airport infrastructure would be for the entire Central Lakes region.
The Queenstown Airport Corporation’s (QAC) dual airport strategy had planned a $300 million international airport at Wānaka, expanding it to the current size of Queenstown Airport by 2050. The underlying rationale is that a second international airport will be needed due to the geographic constraints limiting the expansion of Queenstown Airport. Although stalled due to a technical issue resulting from court action, the prospect of Wānaka Airport’s substantial development remains, with a new round of consultation already underway in 2025.
Meanwhile, Christchurch International Airport Ltd (CIAL) proposes an alternative airport at the head of Lake Dunstan, pitched as an overflow option for Queenstown Airport. This would remove the current pressure to develop Wānaka Airport, allowing it to retain its much-valued general aviation characteristics. The substantial CIAL landholding, which is five times that of Queenstown Airport, could alternatively accommodate all the region’s domestic and international flights, allowing for the closure of Queenstown Airport.
We question whether more than one international airport is necessary for the Central Lakes region.
Also, we question whether Queenstown Airport is the best future use of Frankton Flats land, given the district’s rapid population growth, the benefits of centralised urban density, and calls for economic diversification. We note that CIAL paid just $6 per square meter for its Tarras location, whereas commercial land on Frankton Flats, the home of Queenstown Airport, sells for $2,000-$3,000 m3. This price difference highlights the opportunity cost of the current airport’s location. As with the Ports of Auckland, has Whakatipu outgrown its current airport location?
We are at a crossroads, where decisions will soon lock in airport infrastructure for the next millennium. The options offer profoundly differing impacts on the region’s social, environmental, and economic well-being. We need to plan this with joined-up thinking, not leave it to chance.
We think the airports’ debate offers a chance for fundamental change to get better long-term outcomes for climate change, housing affordability, economic productivity, environment, and community wellbeing.
We invite you to join our call for a connected approach across all stakeholders.
John Hilhorst – FlighPlan2050
An option
We offer this option to stimulate debate for a holistic regional strategy. We welcome critique and alternative ideas.
The goal is to catalyse diversification to a high-income knowledge economy by maximising central urban density in a beautiful 15-minute smart-city campus, eventually accommodating 40,000. The accelerated knowledge economy and central urban density strongly mitigate climate change and enable sustainable prosperity.
This option would relocate all the region’s scheduled airline services from Queenstown Airport, allowing its closure and the campus development of Frankton Flats by council-owned and controlled QAC. Whakatipu’s fixed-wing general aviation could be relocated to Kingston Aerodrome or Queenstown Hill, retaining a vertical takeoff and landing hub in Frankton. New technology electric taxi drones (eVTOLs) could supply rapid transfers to the new airport from small vertiports throughout the Whakatipu, while most travellers use electric airport express bus services.
The proposed Central Otago Airport makes such closure politically and commercially viable – and possible by 2032.
Density, diversification, and hospitality are the strategy’s three pillars. Economic diversification to high-value knowledge industries both requires and enables central urban density. These provide increased support for the local hospitality sector. This strategy redirects investment focus to high-wage activity, reducing the economic imperative to drive international visitor growth.
Concentrated Urban Heart
Thriving Knowledge Sector
Sustainable Hospitality Sector
We have the chance to create one of the world's most attractively liveable cities at Frankton. Only the airport prevents us, but that problem can be solved.
David Jerram – FlighPlan2050
Unique potential
Frankton Flats presents a unique opportunity to transform our region. Sunny, flat, and seismically stable, it is perfectly located as the central heart of Whakatipu’s existing urban development, transport, and infrastructure networks. It’s primed with public and commercial facilities around its perimeter — an outstanding location bound by rivers and lake.
By the extraordinary good luck of history, the Flats is mostly a blank canvas of bare land – held in a single block by a large corporation 75% owned by the community. This good fortune presents an exceptional opportunity to plan a beautiful CBD-campus within the existing ring road, eventually accommodating 30,000 people in a wonderfully liveable, vibrant knowledge hub that underpins the region’s economic transformation.
Urban density and economic diversification together are the region’s most effective climate mitigation strategy. Council ownership of the development company (QAC) enables novel lease and ownership structures that protect housing and business affordability.
Concentrated urban heart
Primed and ready
Frankton Flats is uniquely suited for a high-density knowledge centre. Sunny and flat, it’s at the hub of Wakatipu’s urban development and transport network.
A geographically stunning location, it already has a ring road and perimeter of city infrastructure, yet offers a blank canvas on which to design the world’s smartest city.
Livable CBD-campus
Quality high-density, mixed-use CBD-campus on Frankton Flats becomes the world’s most wonderful place to live and work. Could eventually accommodate 30,000 residents and a thriving cluster of higher learning, technology, and research enterprises.
Central heart
In the heart of Whakatipu Basin, centrally connected to all major suburbs. Rationalises transport network and avoids suburban sprawl.
QAC as developer
Council-owned and controlled Corporation ensures billion-dollar value gain for ratepayers.
Coordination and scale ensure efficiencies and optimum design, layout, development timing, and use of space.
Affordability assured
QAC (Council) maintains control through lease-to-occupy and other ownership structures, preventing excessive property inflation and ensuring ongoing business and residential affordability.
Healthy living
Active, micro, and public transport are predominant within Frankton and connected suburbs. High social and cultural connectivity with attractive community spaces and excellent access to the trail network and open spaces.
The best place to live and work for knowledge sector workers and people of all stripes.
Thriving knowledge sector
Substance and character
Urban density is essential to achieve the depth and substance required by knowledge industries.
It’s essential to attract higher learning and research institutes and to create a dense ecosystem of knowledge sector businesses. And to sustain talented people, with career, educational, and social opportunities for workers, spouses, family, and friends.
Concentrating ideas
Urban density is also necessary for the multiple connections, frequent interactions, and serendipity needed for the knowledge sector to thrive.
The district’s current dispersed settlements fail to provide the commercial density needed, and no sufficient centre is proposed in our current planning. Aspirations for economic diversification to the knowledge sector will continue to flounder if we fail to provide the urban density required by its ecosystem.
High value
Unlike tourism, high-productivity knowledge enterprises have no physical limit to the quantum or rate of revenue expansion, enabling much greater incomes and enduring prosperity.
Sustainable
The health, education, film, and technology knowledge economies offer high-value productivity with far lower greenhouse gas emissions than tourism.
Sustainable hospitality Sector
Carbon Zero by 2030
The Queenstown Lakes’ Destination Management Plan (DMP) commits to Carbon Zero by 2030, including visitor travel emissions. Achieving this requires fewer international visitors, forcing greater reliance on domestic tourism and local hospitality.
Committed to change
The DMP claims wide support within the sector for Carbon Zero by 2030 adaption, including “rapid action” for “systemic change” with “no delay.”
The hyper-convenience of a ‘Main Street’ airport is not aligned with this ambition, encouraging us to explore alternative connectivity options so we can instead repurpose the council-controlled prime, central land in Frankton.
Changing profile
High-volume, single-use visitor activities give way to recurring, long-stay, low-emissions pastimes preferred by domestic and regional markets. The thriving knowledge sector boosts local hospitality demand.
Resilience
Tourism is NZ’s highest-risk sector for both climate change and earthquakes, according to the Reserve Bank. Limiting volume growth, targeting regional markets, and economic diversification all mitigate this extreme risk to which the district is currently exposed.
“Relocating airline flights combined with developing Frankton offers the best climate mitigation strategy for our region.”
Gillian Macleod – FlighPlan2050
The Benefits
Increases Prosperity
Enables transition to high-income knowledge economies. It also improves housing affordability by substantially increasing land availability, housing mix, and density, while extending accommodation and employment across the region where accommodation costs are lower.
Together, increased productivity, wider employment options, higher incomes, and improved housing affordability create higher economic wellbeing in all communities in the region.
Mitigates Climate Change
Relocating the region’s airport (as opposed to providing an additional airport) would not drive increased demand.
Instead, it’s the foundation of the region’s most effective climate mitigation strategy, by supporting the rapid economic transition from the current dependence on tourism’s long-haul visitors, enabling central urban densification in the Whakatipu with substantial life-cycle emissions reduction in transport and energy use, and closing New Zealand’s most emissions' costly airport.
Improves Wellbeing
Keeping the best while adding more.
Existing tourism continues to flourish, and a growing residential community benefits the hospitality sector.
Add increased employment options, improved productivity, higher average incomes, improved housing affordability, greater diversity, and enhanced connectivity.
Further, add fully integrated 10-minute communities with effective centralised public and active transport — all these increase social and community wellbeing.
The Reasons
Growing Population
Where will new residents live? This is the crucial question, as projections see the region's population doubling by 2050 and then likely to double again.
People choose to move to this region as a great place to live. If they are New Zealanders or residents, we can’t stop them. But we can use this population growth to drive the structural change needed for a prosperous economy and climate change mitigation. The alternative to a high-density, centralised, sustainable city centre is distributed urban sprawl that erodes environmental values, increases emissions and inhibits economic diversification.
The alternative to a high-density, centralised, sustainable city centre is distributed urban sprawl that erodes environmental values, increases emissions and inhibits economic diversification.
Misplaced airport
Queenstown Airport is the cuckoo in the nest. Once a quiet operation 8 km from Queenstown, it now occupies what should be the district’s Main Street.
Its burgeoning growth and industrial noise obstruct the Spatial Plan’s intent for Frankton Flats as the district’s principal metropolitan centre. This effect forces future suburban development throughout the Wakatipu Basin, increasing transport problems and undermining economic transition.
The Queenstown Lakes Destination Management Plan that seeks sustainable tourism is undermined by Queenstown Airport’s hyper convenience that encourages discretionary, short-stay visits.
Its location is untenable in the long term, and this next decade is the most optimal time for its relocation.
Transitioning Economy
Central Lakes’ must transition its economy, as long-haul tourism faces increasing risks from climate change, an AF8 Earthquake, and social license.
A knowledge economy is the only viable alternative but failing to plan a sizeable urban campus would forever undermine such a transition. Knowledge economies need urban density with substance, vitality, and character to thrive, providing depth for an extended ecosystem and pool of talented people.
Frankton Flats is the only viable location that could realize this potential within the required timeframe.
“The region's future prosperity and climate mitigation depends on the knowledge sector. We must plan for its success.”
The Money
Ratepayer's windfall
The Central Lakes district’s communities benefit from billions of dollars of new infrastructure and community amenities paid for by developing the 153 ha of mostly bare airport land. No longer tied up in a low-yielding airport, its value increases massively by rezoning to a high-density town centre.
Whether sold for huge capital gain or retained and developed by QAC, QLDC ratepayers gain substantially more income and capital to support community investments.
QAC bonanza
QAC wins the lotto! Its pivot from an airport development company to the monopoly central city urban developer increases its enterprise value tenfold. It could become New Zealand’s most valuable property company, owning all the prime real estate in its most liveable city.
Or it could cash in the windfall gain in its land value as zoning changed from rural-general to high-density town centre. Either way, QAC’s return to its shareholders is stellar by any measure.
CIAL and Cromwell bonus
The proposed Central Otago Airport could become the single location for airline flights. This aggregated market offers Christchurch International Airport Ltd a more robust business.
The location supports an efficient supply network, consolidating Cromwell’s position as the central node for the region’s freight and supply logistics.
